DemocraticIncumbent
Paul Takac
- Experience
- State legislature
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 82
Takac is very likely to win: Takac wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Takac (D)
98%
chance of winning
McTernan (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+17.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Takac is clearly favored to win: Takac wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Takac (D)
90%
chance of winning
McTernan (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.6
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kirsten McTernan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.54 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 61,310
- People per km²
- 51
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 5%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
30,779 votes · D+7.6✓ Paul R. Takac Jr. (D)53.8%
Therese J Rohal-Hollen (R)46.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
30,640 two-party votes · D+5.3 · D+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
2022
22,609 votes · D+12.7✓ Paul R Takac Jr (D)56.3%
Justin V Behrens (R)43.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
26,799 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Johnathan D Hershey (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
31,751 two-party votes · D+10.5 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,885 two-party votes · D+6.4 · D+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.2%
Donald Trump (R)46.8%