Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 183
Mako is very likely to win: Mako wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Kamber (D)
2%
chance of winning
Mako (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mako is clearly favored to win: Mako wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Kamber (D)
7%
chance of winning
Mako (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Zach Mako
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.79 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.06 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -7.06 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 66,374
- People per km²
- 207
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,191 votes · R+31.1✓ Zachary Allen Mako (R)65.5%
Joseph William Lenzi (D)34.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
40,054 two-party votes · R+21.8 · R+20.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.9%
Kamala Harris (D)39.1%
2022
21,730 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Zachary Allen Mako (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
36,474 votes · R+22.1✓ Zachary Allen Mako (R)61.1%
Jason Ruff (D)38.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
37,997 two-party votes · R+20.4 · R+24.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Joe Biden (D)39.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
30,935 two-party votes · R+27.9 · R+30.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.1%
Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania
Neighboring districts
HD-122Christian BartulovichDoyle Heffley>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-132Michael SchlossbergCaren Lowrey>99%Dem.97%Dem. HD-133Jeanne McNeill—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-135Steve SamuelsonJoseph F. Poplawski>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-137Jeffrey M. WarrenJoe EmrickD flipD flip69%Dem.76%Dem. HD-138Jared BittingAnn Flood98%Rep.92%Rep. HD-176Thomas KucerJack Rader92%Rep.87%Rep. HD-187Rachel CuevasGary Day72%Rep.61%Rep.