Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 136
Freeman is very likely to win: Freeman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Freeman (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Campisi (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+26.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Freeman is very likely to win: Freeman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Freeman (D)
98%
chance of winning
Campisi (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Pilar M. Campisi
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 69,144
- People per km²
- 619
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 20%
- Black 11%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,607 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Robert Freeman (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
30,655 two-party votes · D+11.5 · D+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.8%
Donald Trump (R)44.2%
2022
14,932 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Robert Freeman (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,389 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Robert Freeman (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
29,346 two-party votes · D+14.4 · D+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.2%
Donald Trump (R)42.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,457 two-party votes · D+12.7 · D+10.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%