Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 119
Ryncavage is clearly favored to win: Ryncavage wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
McCurdy (D)
6%
chance of winning
Ryncavage (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ryncavage is clearly favored to win: Ryncavage wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
McCurdy (D)
16%
chance of winning
Ryncavage (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+9.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Alec Ryncavage
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.67 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.93 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.93 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 61,556
- People per km²
- 239
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 5%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
28,654 votes · R+25.9✓ Alec Joseph Ryncavage (R)62.9%
Megan Kocher (D)37.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
29,764 two-party votes · R+17.2 · R+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Kamala Harris (D)41.4%
2022
21,955 votes · R+11.0✓ Alec Joseph Ryncavage (R)55.5%
Vito V Malacari (D)44.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
28,461 votes · D+5.1✓ Gerald J Mullery (D)52.6%
John W Chura (R)47.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,991 two-party votes · R+13.8 · R+18.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Joe Biden (D)43.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
30,234 two-party votes · R+18.0 · R+20.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.0%