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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Missouri House District 110

Stephens is clearly favored to win: Stephens wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.

Heinrich (D)
13%
chance of winning
Stephens (R)
87%
Average margin
R+8.6
80% of outcomes
R+19 to D+1
Partisan lean
R+18
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Stephens is clearly favored to win: Stephens wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.

Heinrich (D)
11%
chance of winning
Stephens (R)
89%
Average margin
R+12.2
80% of outcomes
R+25 to D+1
Partisan lean
R+18
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Statewide map: Missouri House of Representatives

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+8.6R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
R+12.2R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Heinrich 13%Stephens 87%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Heinrich 11%Stephens 89%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Missouri state offices
+0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
Midwest adjustment
+0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe Midwest adjustmentR+8.7Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+8.7Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Missouri andlook-alike placesR+8.6Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+8.6Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+12.2

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.32
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-4.39
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+30.4R+32.6 vs. nation2020 presidentR+19.6R+24.2 vs. nation2024 presidentR+18.0R+16.5 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
50,592
People per km²
279
Adults with a B.A.+
68%
White, no degree
28%of adults
  • White 82%
  • Hispanic 4%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 7%
  • Other / multiracial 7%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

23,430 votes · R+25.3
✓ Justin Sparks (R)62.7%
Josh Thackston (D)37.3%

2024 President Vote in this district

23,570 two-party votes · R+18.0 · R+16.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Kamala Harris (D)41.0%

2022

17,605 votes · R+28.4
✓ Justin Sparks (R)64.2%
Josh Thackston (D)35.8%

2020 Earlier district lines

21,780 votes · R+30.6
✓ Dottie Bailey (R)65.3%
John Kiehne (D)34.7%

2020 President Vote in this district

24,404 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+24.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Joe Biden (D)40.2%

2016 President Vote in this district

20,569 two-party votes · R+30.4 · R+32.6 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)65.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.8%

Neighboring districts

HD-88Jennifer TrickeyHolly Jones89%Rep.85%Rep. HD-100Mary Ann PerkinsPhilip OehlerkingD flipD flip82%Dem.82%Dem. HD-101Paul LentzBen KeathleyD flipD flip78%Dem.83%Dem. HD-102David RogersRichard W West99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-109Trent LeslieJohn Simmons>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-119Amy ThompsonBrad Banderman>99%Rep.>99%Rep.