Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 96
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Vitale is clearly favored to win: Vitale wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Vitale (D)
81%
chance of winning
Christ (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+6.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (86%).
Vitale is clearly favored to win: Vitale wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Vitale (D)
86%
chance of winning
Christ (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+10.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.23 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -12.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -12.25 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,258
- People per km²
- 688
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
22,264 votes · R+10.5✓ Brad Christ (R)55.2%
Leslie Derrington (D)44.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
22,067 two-party votes · D+5.1 · D+6.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.6%
Donald Trump (R)47.4%
2022
17,622 votes · R+8.9✓ Brad Christ (R)54.5%
Leslie Derrington (D)45.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,655 votes · R+19.9✓ David J Gregory (R)59.9%
Erica Hoffman (D)40.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
22,809 two-party votes · D+2.1 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,510 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.0%
Neighboring districts
HD-88Jennifer TrickeyHolly Jones89%Rep.85%Rep. HD-90Mark Boyko—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-91Jo Doll—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-92Michael BurtonKenneth Abram99%Dem.90%Dem. HD-95Meredith SumenekBob Mahacek79%Rep.83%Rep. HD-97Dan SchaeferDavid Robertson98%Rep.98%Rep. HD-98Jaclyn ZimmermannTimothy Bosch98%Dem.90%Dem.