Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 12
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (92%).
Steele is clearly favored to win: Steele wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Steele (D)
92%
chance of winning
Hickey (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+10.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (88%).
Steele is clearly favored to win: Steele wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Steele (D)
88%
chance of winning
Hickey (R)
12%
- Average margin
- D+11.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jerry Hickey
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 41,216
- People per km²
- 436
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 9%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
20,083 votes · R+0.9✓ Mike Jones (R)50.4%
Jamie J Johnson (D)49.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,123 two-party votes · D+6.6 · D+8.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%
2022
14,184 votes · D+4.3✓ Jamie Johnson (D)52.2%
Tom Hutsler (R)47.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,789 votes · R+30.4✓ Josh Hurlbert (R)65.2%
Wade Hugh Kiefer (D)34.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,067 two-party votes · D+6.9 · D+2.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.4%
Donald Trump (R)46.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,252 two-party votes · R+3.6 · R+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.2%