DemocraticIncumbent
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 38
Jacobs is clearly favored to win: Jacobs wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Jacobs (D)
89%
chance of winning
Hill (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+9.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (44% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Jacobs (D)
56%
chance of winning
Hill (R)
44%
- Average margin
- D+1.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Mary Hill
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.56 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 10 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 33,457
- People per km²
- 390
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
20,173 votes · D+2.6✓ Martin Jacobs (D)51.3%
Chris Lonsdale (R)48.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,049 two-party votes · R+4.5 · R+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Kamala Harris (D)47.8%
2022
10,111 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Chris Lonsdale (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,385 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Doug Richey (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,857 two-party votes · R+6.1 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Joe Biden (D)46.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,946 two-party votes · R+12.1 · R+14.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.0%