Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 30
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (80%).
Grover is clearly favored to win: Grover wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Grover (D)
80%
chance of winning
Martin (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+6.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).
Grover is favored to win: Grover wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Grover (D)
76%
chance of winning
Martin (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+6.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jeff Martin
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.12 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.58 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,659
- People per km²
- 690
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
21,945 votes · R+9.1✓ Jon Patterson (R)53.9%
Kevin Grover (D)44.9%
Frank Lawrence (—)1.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
22,075 two-party votes · D+1.0 · D+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%
2022
15,841 votes · R+8.6✓ Jon Patterson (R)54.3%
Sonia M Nizami (D)45.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,441 votes · R+14.5✓ Jon Patterson (R)57.3%
Art Schaaf (D)42.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
19,449 two-party votes · R+2.8 · R+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Joe Biden (D)48.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
16,834 two-party votes · R+12.2 · R+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.9%