DemocraticIncumbent
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 85
Henderson is very likely to win: Henderson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Henderson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Sutton (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+79.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+68 to D+91
- Partisan lean
- D+86
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Henderson is very likely to win: Henderson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Henderson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Sutton (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+89.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+75 to D+100
- Partisan lean
- D+86
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jerron J Sutton
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -23.06 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -23.06 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+86: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,178
- People per km²
- 1,529
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 12%
- White, no degree
- 7%of adults
- White 6%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 89%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
10,977 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Yolonda Fountain Henderson (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,791 two-party votes · D+84.8 · D+86.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)92.4%
Donald Trump (R)7.6%
2022
7,026 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Yolonda Fountain Henderson (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,651 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kevin Windham Jr (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,430 two-party votes · D+88.2 · D+83.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)94.1%
Donald Trump (R)5.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,219 two-party votes · D+90.2 · D+87.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)95.1%
Donald Trump (R)4.9%