Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 17
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (77%).
Hoisington is favored to win: Hoisington wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Hoisington (D)
77%
chance of winning
Allen (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+5.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
Hoisington is favored to win: Hoisington wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Hoisington (D)
78%
chance of winning
Allen (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+7.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Bill Allen
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.81 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,916
- People per km²
- 424
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
17,345 votes · R+3.7✓ Bill Allen (R)51.8%
Shirley Mata (D)48.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,123 two-party votes · R+0.7 · D+0.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Kamala Harris (D)49.7%
2022
11,521 votes · R+0.4✓ Bill Allen (R)50.2%
Mark Ellebracht (D)49.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,875 votes · D+11.2✓ Mark Ellebracht (D)55.6%
Brandt Vircks (R)44.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
19,457 two-party votes · D+4.7 · D+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.4%
Donald Trump (R)47.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,610 two-party votes · R+6.1 · R+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.9%
Neighboring districts
HD-15Kenneth Jamison—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-16Dan KinateChris BrownD flipD flip69%Dem.75%Dem. HD-18Eric Woods—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-19Wick ThomasKaren Irene Spalding>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-20Jeff SpicerMike Steinmeyer85%Rep.80%Rep. HD-21Will JobeMichael Young92%Dem.65%Dem. HD-38Martin (Marty) JacobsMary HillFlip risk89%Dem.56%Dem. HD-39Tanya LakinsMark Meirath99%Rep.98%Rep.