DemocraticIncumbent
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 34
Strickler is very likely to win: Strickler wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Strickler (D)
97%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+15.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Strickler is clearly favored to win: Strickler wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Strickler (D)
83%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
17%
- Average margin
- D+9.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Sean Smith
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.67 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.99 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.99 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 34,392
- People per km²
- 541
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 10%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,635 votes · D+3.6✓ Kemp Strickler (D)51.8%
Jc Crossley (R)48.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,747 two-party votes · D+2.1 · D+3.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.1%
Donald Trump (R)48.9%
2022
13,245 votes · D+0.3✓ Kemp Strickler (D)50.2%
J C Crossley (R)49.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,329 votes · R+1.4✓ Rick Roeber (R)50.7%
Chris Hager (D)49.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
19,145 two-party votes · D+2.3 · R+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,997 two-party votes · R+10.4 · R+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.8%