Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 124
Onstott is very likely to win: Onstott wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hallmark (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Onstott (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+50.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+60 to R+41
- Partisan lean
- R+65
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Onstott is very likely to win: Onstott wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hallmark (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Onstott (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+59.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+73 to R+47
- Partisan lean
- R+65
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kevin Onstott
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+65: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 34,794
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 17%
- White, no degree
- 77%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,884 votes · R+65.6✓ Don Mayhew (R)82.8%
Tara Hallmark (D)17.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,894 two-party votes · R+65.2 · R+63.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)82.6%
Kamala Harris (D)17.4%
2022
11,380 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Don Mayhew (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,736 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lisa Thomas (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,099 two-party votes · R+62.3 · R+66.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)81.1%
Joe Biden (D)18.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,307 two-party votes · R+65.4 · R+67.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)82.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)17.3%
Neighboring districts
HD-58Roger KorenbergWillard Haley>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-59Becky KrollCarrie Tergin>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-61Stacy BaxBruce Sassmann>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-121Miguel ArellanesKeith Pritchard>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-123Cody HutchesonJeff Vernetti>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-141Darrel (Mike) SwoffordMelissa Schmidt>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-143Marsha SnodgrassBennie Cook>99%Rep.>99%Rep.