DemocraticIncumbent
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 36
Ealy is very likely to win: Ealy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ealy (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Thomas (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+24 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ealy is very likely to win: Ealy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ealy (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Thomas (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dave Thomas
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.16 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.01 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.01 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,735
- People per km²
- 396
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 52%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 27%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,110 votes · D+23.2✓ Anthony Ealy (D)61.6%
Dave Thomas (R)38.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
15,281 two-party votes · D+22.7 · D+24.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.3%
Donald Trump (R)38.7%
2022
10,608 votes · D+23.5✓ Anthony Ealy (D)61.7%
Kurt Lauvstad (R)38.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,646 votes · D+36.0✓ Mark A Sharp (D)68.0%
Nola Wood (R)32.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,839 two-party votes · D+26.8 · D+22.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.4%
Donald Trump (R)36.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,168 two-party votes · D+21.3 · D+19.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)60.7%
Donald Trump (R)39.3%