Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 161
Ross is very likely to win: Ross wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Metzger (D)
5%
chance of winning
Ross (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+12.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ross is very likely to win: Ross wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Metzger (D)
4%
chance of winning
Ross (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+17.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Thomas Ross
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.41 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 32,177
- People per km²
- 708
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,273 votes · R+27.9✓ Lane Jay Roberts (R)64.0%
Shawna Ackerson (D)36.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
12,044 two-party votes · R+24.4 · R+22.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.2%
Kamala Harris (D)37.8%
2022
6,819 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lane Roberts (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,263 votes · R+36.1✓ Lane Roberts (R)68.1%
Joshua Shackles (D)31.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
12,123 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+26.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Joe Biden (D)38.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,786 two-party votes · R+35.0 · R+37.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.5%