DemocraticIncumbent
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 136
Hein is very likely to win: Hein wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hein (D)
97%
chance of winning
Buckles (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hein is clearly favored to win: Hein wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Hein (D)
81%
chance of winning
Buckles (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+8.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jacey Buckles
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.44 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 30,813
- People per km²
- 763
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,293 votes · D+2.0✓ Stephanie Hein (D)51.0%
Jim Robinette (R)49.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
17,557 two-party votes · D+1.0 · D+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%
2022
13,631 votes · D+1.5✓ Stephanie Hein (D)50.7%
Craig Fishel (R)49.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,448 votes · R+17.2✓ Craig Fishel (R)58.6%
Jeff Munzinger (D)41.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,805 two-party votes · D+1.5 · R+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.7%
Donald Trump (R)49.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,643 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.8%