DemocraticIncumbent
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 66
Terry is very likely to win: Terry wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Terry (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mitchell-Riley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+72.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+62 to D+84
- Partisan lean
- D+76
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Terry is very likely to win: Terry wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Terry (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mitchell-Riley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+79.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+66 to D+94
- Partisan lean
- D+76
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Laura Mitchell-Riley
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -13.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -13.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+76: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 27,841
- People per km²
- 402
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 16%
- White, no degree
- 16%of adults
- White 13%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 82%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,747 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Marlene Terry (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
10,776 two-party votes · D+75.2 · D+76.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)87.6%
Donald Trump (R)12.4%
2022
6,033 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Marlene Terry (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,655 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Marlene Terry (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,305 two-party votes · D+77.4 · D+72.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)88.7%
Donald Trump (R)11.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,952 two-party votes · D+76.4 · D+74.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)88.2%
Donald Trump (R)11.8%