Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 141
Schmidt is very likely to win: Schmidt wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Swofford (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+58.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+68 to R+48
- Partisan lean
- R+71
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schmidt is very likely to win: Schmidt wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Swofford (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+66.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+80 to R+53
- Partisan lean
- R+71
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Melissa Schmidt
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.94 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.75 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+71: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,131
- People per km²
- 9
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 15%
- White, no degree
- 79%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
20,029 votes · R+76.3✓ Melissa Schmidt (R)88.2%
Michael Bates (D)11.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
23,641 two-party votes · R+71.5 · R+70.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)85.8%
Kamala Harris (D)14.2%
2022
12,855 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Hannah Kelly (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,221 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Hannah S Kelly (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,114 two-party votes · R+69.4 · R+74.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)84.7%
Joe Biden (D)15.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,350 two-party votes · R+68.5 · R+70.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)84.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)15.8%
Neighboring districts
HD-121Miguel ArellanesKeith Pritchard>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-123Cody HutchesonJeff Vernetti>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-124Tara HallmarkKevin Onstott>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-129John GrayWill Worsham>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-142Josh RayJeff Brown>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-143Marsha SnodgrassBennie Cook>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-154Jojo StewartLisa K Durnell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-155Joshua BerzinsMatthew Overcast>99%Rep.>99%Rep.