Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 52
Baeza is very likely to win: Baeza wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Vance (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Baeza (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Baeza is very likely to win: Baeza wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Vance (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Baeza (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+40.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+53 to R+28
- Partisan lean
- R+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Israel Baeza
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+46: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 38,527
- People per km²
- 31
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,836 votes · R+48.6✓ Bradley Pollitt (R)74.3%
Rene Vance (D)25.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,231 two-party votes · R+46.8 · R+45.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.4%
Kamala Harris (D)26.6%
2022
10,423 votes · R+50.3✓ Bradley Pollitt (R)75.1%
Rene Vance (D)24.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,626 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bradley Pollitt (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,843 two-party votes · R+45.2 · R+49.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.6%
Joe Biden (D)27.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,843 two-party votes · R+46.8 · R+49.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.6%