Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 94
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (64%).
Summers is favored to win: Summers wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Summers (D)
64%
chance of winning
Murphy (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+2.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (51% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Summers (D)
51%
chance of winning
Murphy (R)
49%
- Average margin
- D+0.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Maryellen Murphy
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,978
- People per km²
- 1,179
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,560 votes · R+12.7✓ Jim Murphy (R)56.3%
Kyle W Kerns (D)43.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,757 two-party votes · R+6.7 · R+5.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.3%
Kamala Harris (D)46.7%
2022
13,818 votes · R+14.2✓ Jim Murphy (R)57.1%
Kyle W Kerns (D)42.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,161 votes · R+5.7✓ Jim Murphy (R)52.8%
Jean Pretto (D)47.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,035 two-party votes · R+6.4 · R+11.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.2%
Joe Biden (D)46.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,157 two-party votes · R+14.7 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.6%