Democratic
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 160
Perkins is very likely to win: Perkins wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Thomas (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Perkins (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+43.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+53 to R+34
- Partisan lean
- R+55
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Perkins is very likely to win: Perkins wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Thomas (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Perkins (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+49.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+63 to R+38
- Partisan lean
- R+55
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Cheryle Perkins
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.33 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+55: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,356
- People per km²
- 63
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 10%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,501 votes · R+55.8✓ Ben Baker (R)77.9%
Rebecca Stipp Jensen (D)22.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,024 two-party votes · R+55.3 · R+53.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.7%
Kamala Harris (D)22.3%
2022
11,034 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ben Baker (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,759 votes · R+58.0✓ Ben Baker (R)79.0%
Angela Thomas (D)21.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
17,129 two-party votes · R+54.7 · R+59.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.4%
Joe Biden (D)22.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
16,146 two-party votes · R+57.7 · R+60.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)21.1%