DemocraticIncumbent
Missouri › Missouri House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri House District 84
Taylor is very likely to win: Taylor wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Taylor (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Vroman (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+75.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+66 to D+86
- Partisan lean
- D+76
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Taylor is very likely to win: Taylor wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Taylor (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Vroman (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+80.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+67 to D+94
- Partisan lean
- D+76
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robert Vroman
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.84 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+76: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 35,940
- People per km²
- 1,498
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 8%of adults
- White 27%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 62%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,047 votes · D+75.8✓ Del Taylor (D)87.9%
Richard "ricky" Cowell (R)12.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,667 two-party votes · D+74.7 · D+76.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)87.3%
Donald Trump (R)12.7%
2022
8,991 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Del Taylor (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,191 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Wiley Price IV (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,236 two-party votes · D+78.2 · D+73.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)89.1%
Donald Trump (R)10.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
16,359 two-party votes · D+80.2 · D+77.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)90.1%
Donald Trump (R)9.9%
Neighboring districts
HD-74Marla SmithJack Howard>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-76Marlon Anderson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-77Kimberly-Ann Collins—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-82Nick Kimble—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-83Ray Reed—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-85Yolonda Fountain HendersonJerron J Sutton>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-86Jeff Hales—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-99Tori Schafer—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.