Democratic
Maryland › Maryland State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Legislative District 38
Carozza is clearly favored to win: Carozza wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Cressotti (D)
6%
chance of winning
Carozza (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+12.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carozza is clearly favored to win: Carozza wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Cressotti (D)
17%
chance of winning
Carozza (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+8.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mary Beth Carozza
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -14.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -14.95 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 144,865
- People per km²
- 38
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 20%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
68,884 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022
48,595 votes · R+33.0✓ Mary Beth Carozza (R)66.4%
Michele Gregory (D)33.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
86,659 two-party votes · R+11.9 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.9%
Joe Biden (D)44.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
48,873 votes · R+5.4✓ Mary Beth Carozza (R)52.6%
Jim Mathias (D)47.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
58,361 two-party votes · R+22.3 · R+24.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%
2014 Earlier district lines
39,089 votes · D+3.5✓ Jim Mathias (D)51.7%
Mike McDermott (R)48.3%