DemocraticIncumbent
Mary-Dulany James
- Experience
- State legislature
Maryland › Maryland State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Legislative District 34
James is very likely to win: James wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
James (D)
96%
chance of winning
Goel (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+13.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
James is clearly favored to win: James wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
James (D)
89%
chance of winning
Goel (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Raj Goel
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.57 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.4 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.4 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 133,018
- People per km²
- 245
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 23%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
67,561 two-party votes · D+6.4 · D+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.2%
Donald Trump (R)46.8%
2022
45,223 votes · D+1.3✓ Marydulany James (D)50.5%
Christian Miele (R)49.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
66,481 two-party votes · D+8.9 · D+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.4%
Donald Trump (R)45.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
48,788 votes · R+0.4✓ Bob Cassilly (R)50.1%
Marydulany James (D)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
56,782 two-party votes · R+3.1 · R+5.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
38,501 votes · R+14.5✓ Bob Cassilly (R)57.3%
Marydulany James (D)42.7%