Democratic
Maryland › Maryland State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Legislative District 29
Bailey is very likely to win: Bailey wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Borges (D)
4%
chance of winning
Bailey (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+14.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bailey is clearly favored to win: Bailey wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Borges (D)
17%
chance of winning
Bailey (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+8.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jack Bailey
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 137,095
- People per km²
- 63
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 14%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
70,335 two-party votes · R+15.5 · R+14.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Kamala Harris (D)42.3%
2022
34,355 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jack Bailey (R)96.3%
Other Write-Ins (—)3.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
100,249 two-party votes · R+11.6 · R+16.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.8%
Joe Biden (D)44.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
48,031 votes · R+20.7✓ Jack Bailey (R)60.2%
Thomas Brewer (D)39.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
56,520 two-party votes · R+21.6 · R+23.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.2%
2014 Earlier district lines
39,248 votes · R+13.0✓ Steve Waugh (R)56.5%
Roy Dyson (D)43.5%