Multi-member delegate districts
Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.
Maryland › Maryland House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Delegate District 33B
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (92%).
Cook is clearly favored to win: Cook wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Cook (D)
92%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+10.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (90%).
Cook is clearly favored to win: Cook wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Cook (D)
90%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Chuck Cook
RepublicanIncumbent
Stuart Schmidt Jr.
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.6 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.73 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.73 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 58,674
- People per km²
- 303
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 60%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 9%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
26,853 two-party votes · D+8.5 · D+10.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2022
20,729 votes · R+1.4✓ Stuart Michael Schmidt Jr (R)50.7%
John Wakefield (D)49.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,194 two-party votes · D+10.4 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
23,725 two-party votes · R+3.3 · R+5.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.3%
Also on the ballot in Maryland
Neighboring districts
HD-21Benjamin S. Barnes—D vs D3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-23Marvin E. Holmes Jr.Michael Riker3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-30ADylan Behler—D vs D2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-30BMatt JohnstonSeth A. Howard73%Rep.70%Rep. HD-31Joan Barone ColeBrian Chisholm3 seats93%Rep.89%Rep. HD-33AAndrew Pruski—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-33CHeather BagnallKristin Norris99%Dem.95%Dem.