Multi-member delegate districts
Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.
Maryland › Maryland House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Delegate District 7A
2 seatsNawrocki is clearly favored to win: Nawrocki wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Brown (D)
15%
chance of winning
Nawrocki (R)
85%
- Average margin
- R+7.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Nawrocki is favored to win: Nawrocki wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Brown (D)
26%
chance of winning
Nawrocki (R)
74%
- Average margin
- R+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.3 D · 1.7 R expected of 2 seats
0.6 D · 1.4 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Ly Xīnzhèn M. Zhǎngsūn Brown
Democratic
Satish Chapagain
RepublicanIncumbent
Ryan Nawrocki
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanIncumbent
Kathy Szeliga
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 90,260
- People per km²
- 351
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 19%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
47,133 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Kamala Harris (D)45.8%
2022
48,559 votes · R+18.6✓ Kathy Szeliga (R)37.1%
Ryan Nawrocki (R)36.8%
Lydia X Z Brown (D)25.5%
Other Write-Ins (—)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,444 two-party votes · R+8.8 · R+13.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.4%
Joe Biden (D)45.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
41,954 two-party votes · R+19.3 · R+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.3%
Also on the ballot in Maryland
Neighboring districts
HD-6Artus HuffmanRobin Grammer Jr.3 seats96%Rep.90%Rep. HD-7BCandace HartLauren Arikan>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-8Nick AllenBrian Campbell3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-34AAndre Johnson Jr.Elliott Joseph Herneker2 seats>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-42AJyoti MohanChuck Murphy67%Rep.79%Rep. HD-42BMichele GuytonJeffry McDonald>99%Dem.>99%Dem.