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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Maryland › Maryland House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Maryland Delegate District 6

3 seats

Grammer is very likely to win: Grammer wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Huffman (D)
4%
chance of winning
Grammer (R)
96%
Average margin
R+13.3
80% of outcomes
R+23 to R+4
Partisan lean
R+19
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Grammer is clearly favored to win: Grammer wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.

Huffman (D)
10%
chance of winning
Grammer (R)
90%
Average margin
R+12.5
80% of outcomes
R+25 to Even
Partisan lean
R+19
Polls
No pollsmodel only

3 seats in this district

0.2 D · 2.8 R expected of 3 seats

0.3 D · 2.7 R expected of 3 seats

Statewide map: Maryland House of Delegates

How this race is decided

Multi-member delegate districts

Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+13.3R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
R+12.5R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Huffman 4%Grammer 96%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Huffman 10%Grammer 90%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Maryland state offices
+1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
Mid-Atlantic adjustment
−0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe Mid-Atlantic adjustmentR+10.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+13.3Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Maryland andlook-alike placesR+13.3Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+13.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+12.5

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-1.4
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation2.15
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+16.1R+18.3 vs. nation2020 presidentR+15.3R+19.8 vs. nation2024 presidentR+18.0R+16.5 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
125,321
People per km²
472
Adults with a B.A.+
18%
White, no degree
57%of adults
  • White 61%
  • Hispanic 10%
  • Black 20%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 7%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024 President Vote in this district

49,373 two-party votes · R+18.0 · R+16.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Kamala Harris (D)41.0%

2022

70,740 votes · R+19.3
✓ Ric Metzgar (R)23.6%
Robin Grammer (R)23.1%
Bob Long (R)22.6%
Megan Ann Mioduszewski (D)16.0%
Jake Mohorovic III (D)14.3%

2020 President Vote in this district

48,760 two-party votes · R+15.3 · R+19.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)57.6%
Joe Biden (D)42.4%

2018 Earlier district lines

92,756 votes · R+17.5
✓ Bob Long (R)19.7%
Robin L Grammer (R)19.5%
Ric Metzgar (R)19.2%
Nicholas C Dadamo Jr (D)13.9%
Megan Ann Mioduszewski (D)13.2%

2016 President Vote in this district

53,088 two-party votes · R+16.1 · R+18.3 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.0%

2014 Earlier district lines

79,182 votes · R+18.3
✓ Bob Long (R)21.2%
Ric Metzgar (R)19.2%
Robin L Grammer Jr (R)18.4%
Nicholas C Dadamo Jr (D)14.6%
Mike Weir Jr (D)14.5%

Also on the ballot in Maryland

GovernorWes MooreDan Cox>99%Dem.>99%Dem.

Neighboring districts

HD-7ALy Xīnzhèn M. Zhǎngsūn BrownRyan Nawrocki2 seats85%Rep.74%Rep. HD-8Nick AllenBrian Campbell3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-31Joan Barone ColeBrian Chisholm3 seats93%Rep.89%Rep. HD-34AAndre Johnson Jr.Elliott Joseph Herneker2 seats>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-36Nevin CrouseSteven J. Arentz3 seats99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-45Jackie Addison—D vs D3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-46Luke ClippingerJeremy Amason3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem.