Democratic
Maryland › Maryland State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Legislative District 4
Folden is favored to win: Folden wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Westdorp (D)
27%
chance of winning
Folden (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+4.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Folden is favored to win: Folden wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Westdorp (D)
39%
chance of winning
Folden (R)
61%
- Average margin
- R+2.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
William Folden
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.04 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.04 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 140,363
- People per km²
- 103
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 6%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
78,145 two-party votes · R+6.3 · R+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Kamala Harris (D)46.9%
2022
56,581 votes · R+15.2✓ William Folden (R)57.5%
Carleah M Summers (D)42.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
77,685 two-party votes · R+5.0 · R+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Joe Biden (D)47.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
59,645 votes · R+18.3✓ Michael Hough (R)59.1%
Jessica Douglass (D)40.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
66,165 two-party votes · R+18.6 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.7%
2014 Earlier district lines
46,287 votes · R+35.7✓ Michael Hough (R)67.9%
Dan Rupli (D)32.1%