DemocraticIncumbent
Anthony Brown
Incumbent attorney general (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Maryland › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Attorney General
Brown is very likely to win: Brown wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Brown (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rutledge (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Brown is very likely to win: Brown wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Brown (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rutledge (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+57
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
James Rutledge III
Former Bel Air town commissioner (2023–2025) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.22 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.22 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean D+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,206,011
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 47%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 29%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,938,129 two-party votes · D+29.5 · D+31.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.8%
Donald Trump (R)35.2%
2022
1,982,290 votes · D+30.1✓ Anthony G Brown (D)64.9%
Michael Anthony Peroutka (R)34.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,961,437 two-party votes · D+34.1 · D+29.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.0%
Donald Trump (R)33.0%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,621,434 two-party votes · D+28.0 · D+25.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)64.0%
Donald Trump (R)36.0%