Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Indiana › Indiana State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana State Senate District 1
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (75%).
Houldieson is favored to win: Houldieson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Houldieson (D)
75%
chance of winning
Vries (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+4.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (56% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Houldieson (D)
56%
chance of winning
Vries (R)
44%
- Average margin
- D+1.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Scott Houldieson
Republican
Trevor De Vries
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 135,901
- People per km²
- 759
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 12%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
67,603 two-party votes · R+7.3 · R+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.6%
Kamala Harris (D)46.4%
2022
44,878 votes · R+4.7✓ Daniel E Dernulc (R)52.3%
Michael W Griffin (D)47.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
68,840 two-party votes · R+0.9 · R+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Joe Biden (D)49.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
46,722 votes · D+26.6✓ Frank Marvan (D)63.3%
Charles B Kallas (R)36.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
57,163 two-party votes · R+1.1 · R+3.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.5%
2014 Earlier district lines
26,044 votes · D+19.3✓ Frank Mrvan Jr (D)59.7%
Kenneth R Stevenson (R)40.3%