Indiana › Indiana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Indiana House District 24

Smith is favored to win: Smith wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.

Bleicher (D)

40%

chance of winning

Smith (R)

60%

Average margin: R+1.9
80% of outcomes: R+12 to D+8
Partisan lean: R+8
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (44% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Bleicher (D)

44%

chance of winning

Smith (R)

56%

Average margin: R+1.4
80% of outcomes: R+14 to D+12
Partisan lean: R+8
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Statewide map: Indiana House of Representatives

How this race is decided

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Hunter Smith

Experience: State legislature

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast
Indiana state offices: +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here: D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office: 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
Midwest adjustment: +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs

Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)	-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)	-0.4
Elected-experience edge	-0.67
First-term incumbent	0
Seat's last result vs. expectation	-1.95
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation	-1.95

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population: 84,163
People per km²: 177
Adults with a B.A.+: 63%
White, no degree: 29%of adults

White 74%
Hispanic 7%
Black 6%
Asian 8%
Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

41,601 votes · R+12.3

✓ Hunter Smith (R)56.2%

Josh Lowry (D)43.8%

2024 President Vote in this district

41,887 two-party votes · R+7.8 · R+6.3 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%

Kamala Harris (D)46.1%

2022

25,905 votes · R+16.3

✓ Donna Schaibley (R)56.6%

Joellyn Mayer (D)40.8%

Kenneth A Tucker (I)2.5%

2020 Earlier district lines

52,174 votes · R+16.2

✓ Donna Schaibley (R)58.1%

Naomi S Bechtold (D)41.9%

2020 President Vote in this district

36,068 two-party votes · R+7.7 · R+12.2 vs. the nation