Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Indiana › Indiana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana House District 9
Novak is very likely to win: Novak wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Novak (D)
97%
chance of winning
Cleveland (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Novak is clearly favored to win: Novak wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Novak (D)
82%
chance of winning
Cleveland (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+8.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Randy Novak
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Chris Cleveland
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 67,955
- People per km²
- 132
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 13%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
29,704 votes · D+2.0✓ Patricia A "pat" Boy (D)51.0%
Joel Florek (R)49.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
30,070 two-party votes · D+1.7 · D+3.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.9%
Donald Trump (R)49.1%
2022
21,221 votes · D+9.7✓ Patricia A Boy (D)54.9%
Dion Bergeron (R)45.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
27,877 votes · D+13.2✓ Patricia A Boy (D)56.6%
Dion Bergeron (R)43.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
31,604 two-party votes · D+6.2 · D+1.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
28,477 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%