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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Indiana › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Indiana Auditor

Nieshalla is very likely to win: Nieshalla wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Bailey (D)
4%
chance of winning
Nieshalla (R)
96%
Average margin
R+12.2
80% of outcomes
R+21 to R+4
Partisan lean
R+19
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Nieshalla is favored to win: Nieshalla wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.

Bailey (D)
22%
chance of winning
Nieshalla (R)
78%
Average margin
R+7.7
80% of outcomes
R+21 to D+6
Partisan lean
R+19
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

R+12.2R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
R+7.7R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Bailey 4%Nieshalla 96%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Bailey 22%Nieshalla 78%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Indiana state offices
+1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+8.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+12.7Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Indiana and look-alikeplacesR+11.5Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+12.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+7.7

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-7.71
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+20.2R+22.5 vs. nation2020 presidentR+16.4R+20.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+19.3R+17.8 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
6,851,073
Adults with a B.A.+
30%
White, no degree
55%of adults
  • White 75%
  • Hispanic 9%
  • Black 9%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

2,883,950 two-party votes · R+19.3 · R+17.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Kamala Harris (D)40.3%

2022

759,285 votes · R+31.7
✓ Tera K Klutz (R)63.4%
Zenai Brooks (D)32.9%
John Andrew Schick (L)3.7%

2020 President Vote in this state

2,971,935 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+20.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Joe Biden (D)41.8%

2018

2,215,537 votes · R+14.8
✓ Tera Klutz (R)55.4%
Joselyn Whitticker (D)41.1%
John Schick (L)3.5%

2016 President Vote in this state

2,590,412 two-party votes · R+20.2 · R+22.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.9%