Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Indiana › Indiana State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana State Senate District 22
Alting is clearly favored to win: Alting wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Baker (D)
6%
chance of winning
Alting (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Alting is clearly favored to win: Alting wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Baker (D)
19%
chance of winning
Alting (R)
81%
- Average margin
- R+8.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Natasha Baker
RepublicanIncumbent
Ron Alting
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 128,104
- People per km²
- 77
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
54,429 two-party votes · R+14.6 · R+13.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.3%
Kamala Harris (D)42.7%
2022
24,342 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ronnie J Alting (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
57,227 two-party votes · R+14.4 · R+19.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Joe Biden (D)42.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
37,448 votes · R+10.7✓ Ron Alting (R)55.3%
Sheryl Shipley (D)44.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
55,539 two-party votes · R+23.5 · R+25.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.2%
2014 Earlier district lines
16,051 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ron Alting (R)100.0%