Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Indiana › Indiana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana House District 71
Chesser is clearly favored to win: Chesser wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Chesser (D)
95%
chance of winning
McClure (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+12.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Chesser is favored to win: Chesser wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Chesser (D)
74%
chance of winning
McClure (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+6.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Wendy Dant Chesser
Incumbent state representative
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
James McClure Jr.
Candidate for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.62 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 67,556
- People per km²
- 687
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 12%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
28,938 two-party votes · R+0.3 · D+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Kamala Harris (D)49.8%
2022
18,378 votes · D+1.2✓ Rita Fleming (D)50.6%
Scott Hawkins (R)49.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
24,690 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Rita A Fleming (D)77.6%
Russell Brooksbank (—)22.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
37,079 two-party votes · R+0.2 · R+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Joe Biden (D)49.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
23,804 votes · D+13.8✓ Rita A Fleming (D)55.6%
Matt Owen (R)42.1%
Thomas Keister (L)2.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
26,343 two-party votes · R+5.6 · R+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.2%