99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

California › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

California Auditor

Top two

Cohen is very likely to win: Cohen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Cohen (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Morgan (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+30.8
80% of outcomes
D+23 to D+39
Partisan lean
D+23
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Cohen is very likely to win: Cohen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Cohen (D)
99%
chance of winning
Morgan (R)
1%
Average margin
D+29.6
80% of outcomes
D+16 to D+44
Partisan lean
D+23
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

D+30.8R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+29.6R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How this race is decided

Top-two primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Cohen >99%Morgan <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Cohen 99%Morgan 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
California state offices
−0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+8.9Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+32.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+31.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in California andlook-alike placesD+29.9Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+30.7Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+29.6

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+32.3D+30.0 vs. nation2020 presidentD+29.8D+25.3 vs. nation2024 presidentD+20.8D+22.3 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
39,287,377
Adults with a B.A.+
37%
White, no degree
20%of adults
  • White 34%
  • Hispanic 40%
  • Black 5%
  • Asian 15%
  • Other / multiracial 6%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

15,357,876 two-party votes · D+20.8 · D+22.3 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.4%
Donald Trump (R)39.6%

2020 President Vote in this state

17,116,679 two-party votes · D+29.8 · D+25.3 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)64.9%
Donald Trump (R)35.1%

2016 President Vote in this state

13,237,598 two-party votes · D+32.3 · D+30.0 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.1%
Donald Trump (R)33.9%

Also on the ballot in California

GovernorXavier BecerraSteve Hilton>99%Dem.>99%Dem.