400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Cheshire 11
Murphy is clearly favored to win: Murphy wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Picard (D)
13%
chance of winning
Murphy (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+8.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Murphy is favored to win: Murphy wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Picard (D)
27%
chance of winning
Murphy (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Lindseigh Picard
RepublicanIncumbent
Denis Vincent Murphy II
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.4 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,212
- People per km²
- 29
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 75%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
1,994 votes · R+11.4✓ Denis Vincent Murphy II (R)55.7%
Natalie Quevedo (D)44.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
2,048 two-party votes · R+11.4 · R+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Kamala Harris (D)44.3%
2022
1,445 votes · R+6.0✓ Zachary Nutting (R)53.0%
Natalie Quevedo (D)47.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
8,772 votes · R+21.8✓ John B Hunt (R)32.8%
✓ Jim Qualey (R)26.5%
Patricia A Martin (D)21.0%
Gene Andersen (D)19.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
1,974 two-party votes · R+0.1 · R+4.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Joe Biden (D)49.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
1,669 two-party votes · D+0.7 · R+1.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%