Democratic
David Trumble
Organic farmer, college debate coach, and candidate for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
New Hampshire › New Hampshire State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire State Senate District 8
Creighton is clearly favored to win: Creighton wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Trumble (D)
10%
chance of winning
Creighton (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+9.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Creighton is clearly favored to win: Creighton wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Trumble (D)
18%
chance of winning
Creighton (R)
82%
- Average margin
- R+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jim Creighton
U.S. army veteran and state representative (2020-present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.33 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 56,581
- People per km²
- 33
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
31,653 votes · R+16.7✓ Ruth Ward (R)58.3%
David Trumble (D)41.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
32,799 two-party votes · R+11.7 · R+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.8%
Kamala Harris (D)44.2%
2022
49,200 votes · R+14.5✓ Ruth Ward (R)57.2%
Charlene Marcotte Lovett (D)42.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
34,024 votes · R+11.1✓ Ruth Ward (R)55.6%
Jenn Alford-Teaster (D)44.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
31,394 two-party votes · R+7.3 · R+11.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Joe Biden (D)46.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
27,622 two-party votes · R+13.3 · R+15.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.4%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
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