400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Cheshire 13
Ahlborn-Hsu is favored to win: Ahlborn-Hsu wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Ahlborn-Hsu (D)
78%
chance of winning
Santonastaso (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ahlborn-Hsu is favored to win: Ahlborn-Hsu wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Ahlborn-Hsu (D)
75%
chance of winning
Santonastaso (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+6.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Tom Ahlborn-Hsu
Republican
Matthew Santonastaso
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.12 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.88 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,021
- People per km²
- 45
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,155 votes · D+3.7✓ Richard Ames (D)51.9%
Donald R Primrose (R)48.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,250 two-party votes · D+3.9 · D+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%
2022
6,602 votes · D+7.6✓ Richard Ames (D)53.8%
Rita Mattson (R)46.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
1,929 votes · R+3.1✓ Ben Kilanski (R)51.5%
Natalie Quevedo (D)48.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,029 two-party votes · D+10.0 · D+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.0%
Donald Trump (R)45.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,563 two-party votes · D+7.2 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
State House District Cheshire 08Christine L. Parshall—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. State House District Cheshire 12Kristan TiltonDick Thackston92%Rep.86%Rep. State House District Cheshire 14Gene F. AndersenJohn B. Hunt99%Rep.98%Rep. State House District Hillsborough 33Peter R. LeishmanKimberly Thomas2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem.