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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Belknap 06

3 seats

Aldrich is favored to win: Aldrich wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Nagel (D)
30%
chance of winning
Aldrich (R)
70%
Average margin
R+3.7
80% of outcomes
R+13 to D+6
Partisan lean
R+10
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Aldrich is clearly favored to win: Aldrich wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.

Nagel (D)
19%
chance of winning
Aldrich (R)
81%
Average margin
R+8.3
80% of outcomes
R+21 to D+4
Partisan lean
R+10
Polls
No pollsmodel only

3 seats in this district

0.9 D · 2.0 R expected of 3 seats

0.6 D · 2.4 R expected of 3 seats

Statewide map: New Hampshire House of Representatives

How this race is decided

400-member House

The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+3.7R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
R+8.3R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Nagel 30%Aldrich 70%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Nagel 19%Aldrich 81%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
New Hampshire state offices
−1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
New England adjustment
−2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe New England adjustmentR+5.5Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+3.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in New Hampshire andlook-alike placesR+4.0Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+3.7Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+8.3

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0.07
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-3.04
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+15.9R+18.1 vs. nation2020 presidentR+8.1R+12.6 vs. nation2024 presidentR+10.7R+9.2 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
11,856
People per km²
40
Adults with a B.A.+
43%
White, no degree
52%of adults
  • White 91%
  • Hispanic 3%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 3%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

32,154 votes · R+15.6
✓ Harry H Bean (R)15.5%
✓ David Nagel (R)14.7%
✓ Russell Dumais (R)14.5%
✓ Glen Aldrich (R)13.3%
Kurt Webber (D)11.3%

2024 President Vote in this district

8,427 two-party votes · R+10.7 · R+9.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Kamala Harris (D)44.7%

2022 Earlier district lines

118,505 votes · R+8.4
Bean (R)6.4%
Dumais (R)6.4%
Nagel (R)6.0%
Beaudoin (R)5.4%
Dimartino (D)5.4%

2020 Earlier district lines

248,815 votes · R+12.4
David Love (R)3.3%
Phyllis Katsakiores (R)3.1%
Richard Tripp (R)3.1%
Anne Copp (R)3.0%
Erica Layon (R)3.0%

2020 President Vote in this district

8,949 two-party votes · R+8.1 · R+12.6 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Joe Biden (D)46.0%

2016 President Vote in this district

7,679 two-party votes · R+15.9 · R+18.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)57.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.1%

Also on the ballot in New Hampshire

U.S. SenateChris PappasJohn E. Sununu94%Dem.91%Dem. GovernorCinde WarmingtonKelly Ayotte94%Rep.74%Rep.

Neighboring districts

State House District Belknap 02Seth WheelerMatt CokerFlip risk71%Rep.53%Rep. State House District Belknap 04Liz CharlwoodKevin M. Nugent, Jr.99%Rep.96%Rep. State House District Belknap 05Marcia HaywardMike Bordes3 seats80%Rep.69%Rep. State House District Belknap 07Laura DunhamPeter R. Varney3 seats99%Rep.98%Rep. State House District Carroll 03Bryan RandolphKarel A. Crawford2 seats77%Rep.64%Rep. State House District Merrimack 02Joyce May FulweilerGregory Hill98%Rep.93%Rep. State House District Merrimack 04Cody YorkMichael Moffett2 seats90%Rep.83%Rep. State House District Merrimack 13—Clayton WoodR vs R2 seats>99%Rep.>99%Rep.