DemocraticIncumbent
Denise Joy
- Experience
- State legislature
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 46
Joy is clearly favored to win: Joy wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Joy (D)
92%
chance of winning
Welzenbach (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+10.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Joy is favored to win: Joy wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Joy (D)
67%
chance of winning
Welzenbach (R)
33%
- Average margin
- D+4.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kim Welzenbach
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 21,499
- People per km²
- 3,668
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,738 votes · D+5.8✓ Emma Kerr Carpenter (D)52.9%
Starr Emery (R)47.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,746 two-party votes · R+1.9 · R+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Kamala Harris (D)49.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
5,015 votes · R+27.8✓ Bill Mercer (R)63.9%
Tim Warburton (D)36.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,296 votes · R+35.5✓ Bill Mercer (R)67.7%
Zach Ladson (D)32.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,283 two-party votes · D+5.1 · D+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.5%
Donald Trump (R)47.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,248 two-party votes · R+2.5 · R+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.8%