Democratic
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 64
Bremer is very likely to win: Bremer wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bremer (D)
98%
chance of winning
Martinez (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bremer is clearly favored to win: Bremer wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Bremer (D)
94%
chance of winning
Martinez (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+15.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.38 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,678
- People per km²
- 142
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 7%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,850 votes · D+8.6✓ Kelly Kortum (D)54.3%
Jolene Crum (R)45.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,076 two-party votes · D+9.6 · D+11.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
6,600 votes · R+10.6✓ Jane Gillette (R)53.8%
Alanah Griffith (D)43.5%
Doug Campbell (L)2.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
8,639 votes · R+11.8✓ Jane Gillette (R)53.0%
Brian Gabriel Popiel (D)41.8%
Doug Campbell (—)5.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
7,226 two-party votes · D+17.6 · D+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.8%
Donald Trump (R)41.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,075 two-party votes · D+9.1 · D+6.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.6%
Donald Trump (R)45.4%