Democratic
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 1
Bianco is very likely to win: Bianco wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Adams (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Bianco (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+41.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+51 to R+31
- Partisan lean
- R+55
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bianco is very likely to win: Bianco wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Adams (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Bianco (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+51.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+65 to R+39
- Partisan lean
- R+55
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Michelle Bianco
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.86 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+55: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 14,924
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 74%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 4%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,929 votes · R+59.9✓ Neil Duram (R)80.0%
Dakota V Adams (D)20.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,934 two-party votes · R+55.5 · R+54.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.8%
Kamala Harris (D)22.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
3,220 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Steve Gunderson (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,239 votes · R+42.1✓ Steve Gunderson (R)71.0%
Marvin C Sather (D)29.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,502 two-party votes · R+51.5 · R+56.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.8%
Joe Biden (D)24.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,966 two-party votes · R+53.1 · R+55.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)23.4%