DemocraticIncumbent
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 59
Thunder is very likely to win: Thunder wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Thunder (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Greendorfer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Thunder is very likely to win: Thunder wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Thunder (D)
99%
chance of winning
Greendorfer (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+30.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Marc Greendorfer
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.97 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.4 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,981
- People per km²
- 33
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 81%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,722 votes · D+25.6✓ Ed Stafman (D)62.8%
Marc Greendorfer (R)37.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,780 two-party votes · D+25.0 · D+26.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.5%
Donald Trump (R)37.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
5,564 votes · R+30.9✓ Marty Malone (R)65.5%
Ruth Weissman (D)34.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
7,108 votes · R+29.3✓ Marty Malone (R)64.6%
Dan Vermillion (D)35.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,081 two-party votes · D+28.1 · D+23.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.1%
Donald Trump (R)35.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,858 two-party votes · D+21.9 · D+19.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.0%
Donald Trump (R)39.0%