Democratic
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 21
Funseth is clearly favored to win: Funseth wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Graham (D)
5%
chance of winning
Funseth (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+12.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Funseth is clearly favored to win: Funseth wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Graham (D)
6%
chance of winning
Funseth (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Trevor P. Funseth
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -13 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,968
- People per km²
- 256
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 71%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,404 votes · R+35.3✓ Ed Buttrey (R)67.7%
Lela Graham (D)32.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,392 two-party votes · R+21.7 · R+20.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Kamala Harris (D)39.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
3,780 votes · R+31.2✓ Ed Buttrey (R)65.6%
Lela Graham (D)34.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,158 votes · R+31.4✓ Ed Buttrey (R)65.7%
Jaime A Horn (D)34.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,151 two-party votes · R+14.1 · R+18.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.0%
Joe Biden (D)43.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,304 two-party votes · R+20.7 · R+22.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.7%