DemocraticIncumbent
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 3
Powers is very likely to win: Powers wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Powers (D)
95%
chance of winning
Peachey (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+12.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Powers is favored to win: Powers wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Powers (D)
78%
chance of winning
Peachey (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Derek Peachey
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.52 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.52 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,044
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,864 votes · D+3.6✓ Debo Powers (D)51.8%
Cathy Mitchell (R)48.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,902 two-party votes · D+3.1 · D+4.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.5%
Donald Trump (R)48.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
4,685 votes · R+17.4✓ Braxton Mitchell (R)58.7%
Andrea Getts (D)41.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,979 votes · D+55.1✓ Debo Powers (D)77.6%
Braxton Mitchell (R)22.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,925 two-party votes · D+9.2 · D+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.6%
Donald Trump (R)45.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,245 two-party votes · R+2.6 · R+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.7%