Democratic
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 13
Warden is very likely to win: Warden wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bradford (D)
3%
chance of winning
Warden (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Warden is very likely to win: Warden wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bradford (D)
3%
chance of winning
Warden (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+20.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Finley Warden
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.18 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,166
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 26%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,911 votes · R+21.4✓ Linda E Reksten (R)60.7%
Shirley Azzopardi (D)39.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,899 two-party votes · R+23.0 · R+21.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.5%
Kamala Harris (D)38.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
5,947 votes · R+55.0✓ Paul C Fielder (R)77.5%
Colleen Hinds (D)22.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,734 votes · R+53.6✓ Paul C Fielder (R)71.2%
Colleen Hinds (D)21.5%
Cade Stiles (—)7.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,407 two-party votes · R+18.3 · R+22.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Joe Biden (D)40.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,046 two-party votes · R+24.9 · R+27.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.5%