DemocraticIncumbent
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 42
Fitzpatrick is favored to win: Fitzpatrick wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Fitzpatrick (D)
78%
chance of winning
Jabs (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (60%).
Jabs is favored to win: Jabs wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Fitzpatrick (D)
40%
chance of winning
Jabs (R)
60%
- Average margin
- R+2.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jeremiah Jabs
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 13.84 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 18,872
- People per km²
- 3
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 23%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,657 votes · D+5.1✓ Sidney Chip Fitzpatrick (D)52.6%
Bill Hodges (R)47.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
3,642 two-party votes · R+8.0 · R+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Kamala Harris (D)46.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
2,599 votes · D+5.7✓ Sharon Stewart Peregoy (D)52.9%
Virginia McDonald (R)47.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
2,778 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Sharon Stewart Peregoy (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,655 two-party votes · R+0.6 · R+5.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Joe Biden (D)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,325 two-party votes · D+5.4 · D+3.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
Also on the ballot in Montana
Neighboring districts
HD-35Natalie ParkerGary Parry>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-40Gabriel BradshawMike Vinton>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-41Jade Sooktis—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-47James ReavisJohn Maxwell99%Dem.90%Dem. HD-48Tucker ColvinCurtis Schomer89%Rep.86%Rep. HD-54Janine CooleLee Deming>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-55Richard GesslingBrad Barker>99%Rep.>99%Rep.