DemocraticIncumbent
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 89
Thane is very likely to win: Thane wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Thane (D)
97%
chance of winning
Hellegaard (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Thane is clearly favored to win: Thane wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Thane (D)
88%
chance of winning
Hellegaard (R)
12%
- Average margin
- D+11.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Lyn Hellegaard
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,481
- People per km²
- 111
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,458 votes · D+11.2✓ Mark A Thane (D)55.6%
Lyn Hellegaard (R)44.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,364 two-party votes · D+5.6 · D+7.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.8%
Donald Trump (R)47.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
4,601 votes · D+24.4✓ Katie Sullivan (D)62.2%
Gary Wanberg (R)37.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,616 votes · D+20.2✓ Katie Sullivan (D)60.1%
Gary D Wanberg (R)39.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
3,387 two-party votes · D+17.8 · D+13.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.9%
Donald Trump (R)41.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,667 two-party votes · D+10.3 · D+8.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%